THE ENERGY INDUSTRY T I M E S
October 2018 • Volume 11 • No 8 • Published monthly • ISSN 1757-7365 www.teitimes.com
Get connected Catching the beat
The importance of more interconnected
transmission systems is being
recognised by the European Union.
Page 13
Developers and OEMs are warming
to the beat of Brazil’s wind energy
auctions.
Page 14
News In Brief
Hydrogen economy gains
momentum
The use of hydrogen as an
alternative energy carrier is
continuing to gain momentum in
Europe and Asia.
Page 2
California commits to 100
per cent renewables goal
The state of California has set a new
high bar in clean energy in the US
by pledging to reach 100 per cent
renewable electricity by 2045.
Page 4
South Australia warns on
renewables without storage
South Australia’s Energy Minister
has warned that Victoria’s push for
wind and solar without storage is
putting its security of supply at risk.
Page 6
End of China-EU solar trade
war seen as “watershed”
moment
Europe’s removal of tariffs on
imported Chinese solar panels could
make solar the continent’s dominant
energy source in just a few years.
Page 7
Nuclear cast aside in new
SA plan
South Africa has favoured the
expansion of renewable energy,
natural gas and hydropower over
nuclear energy.
Page 8
Six becomes five as UK
competition heats up
The UK’s so-called “big six” of
energy retail is set to become the
“big five” after the competition
authority provisionally approved a
merger between SSE and Innogy.
Page 9
Fuel Watch: Power of Siberia
project nears completion
The Power Siberia Project will
boost Russian-Chinese energy
cooperation.
Page 12
Technology: Milking the
ORC
A dairy in Italy is set to install a
cogeneration plant that uses an
Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) that
will operate at a high temperature.
Page 15
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Final Word
It’s time to change
course or risk sinking,
says Junior Isles.
Page 16
Transition will double
electrification of energy
demand, says new report
Electrification of sectors such as transport and industry will see the role of electricity in energy
demand almost double by mid-century, according to a new report. Junior Isles
A new report says that continuing
rapid electrification will see electricity’s
share of the total energy demand
more than double to 45 per cent in
2050.
According to DNV GL’s ‘Energy
Transition Outlook (ETO) 2018:
Power Supply and Use’ report, this
will be driven by substantial electrification
in the transport, buildings, and
manufacturing sectors. In the transport
sector, the uptake of private electric
vehicles (EVs) will continue to
escalate rapidly, with 50 per cent of
all new cars sold in 2027 in Europe
expected to be EVs.
DNV GL’s ETO 2018 report, which
provides an outlook of the global energy
landscape up to 2050, says the
surge in global electricity production
will be powered by renewable sources
accounting for an estimated 80 per
cent of global electricity production in
2050. As the costs for wind and solar
continue to fall, those two energy
sources are set to meet most of the
electricity demand, with solar PV delivering
40 per cent of electricity generation
and wind energy 29 per cent.
One of the report’s major findings is
that rapid electrification will lead to
major expansion of electricity transmission
and distribution systems
both in the length and capacity of
transmission lines. DNV GL predicts
that the total installed power line
length and capacity will more than
triple by 2050.
While this will make the system operators’
tasks substantially more complex,
there may well be less energy
flowing across the networks, resulting
in fixed costs becoming a greater part
of the bill, the report claims.
Despite major expansion of highcapital
cost renewables and electricity
networks, energy will become more
affordable. It is predicted that the total
cost of energy expenditure, as a share
of global GDP, will fall from 5.5 per
cent to 3.1 per cent, a drop of 44 per
cent. Absolute energy expenditure
will still grow by 30 per cent over the
forecast period, to $6 trillion/yr. DNV
GL foresees a shift in costs, from operational
expenditure, principally fuel,
to capital expenditure. From 2030,
more capital expenditures will go into
electricity grids and wind and solar
than into fossil-fuel projects.
Fossil fuels will, however, continue
to play an important if reduced role in
the energy future with its share set to
drop from around 80 per cent today to
50 per cent by the middle of the century.
The other half will be provided
Continued on Page 2
Power sector transformation crucial to EVs
Although electric vehicles can generate
up to 67 per cent lower greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions than a gasoline
internal combustion engine (ICE) car
on a well-to-wheel basis, their competitive
advantage depends on power
sector transformation.
According to Wood Mackenzie’s
latest research on mobility transition,
comparing GHG emissions from an
EV and a petrol ICE car is not
straightforward, noting that even
though EVs have zero tailpipe emissions,
they are not GHG emissionsfree
when evaluated on a well-towheel
basis.
Notably, the research found that
when there is a high share of coal or
other fossil fuels in the power mix,
typical in Asia Pacific countries, the
competitiveness of EVs versus ICE
cars decreases.
The company says its analysis is
unique in that it focuses on well-towheel
assessment. This involves a
number of factors – how the fuel is
produced in refineries, where the
crude oil is sourced from, mileage of
the car, how the electricity is produced,
and the energy use associated
with vehicle and battery manufacturing
and charging. These factors differ
from country to country.
Aman Verma, Wood Mackenzie
Research Analyst, said: “When using
our integrated model, based on the
existing electricity generation mix in
developing economies such as China
and India, an EV can only displace
up to half the GHG emissions of an
ICE gasoline car.”
Commenting on the findings of the
report, Prakash Sharma, Wood Mackenzie
Research Director, said: “The
most crucial factor in sustaining the
current advantage for EVs is decarbonisation
of the power sector. As
gasoline ICE vehicles become more
fuel efficient, the power mix must
comprise more renewables for EVs
to remain GHG competitive. Currently,
the power sectors in the UK
and US are 30 per cent less emissions
intensive than markets in Asia.
The organisation points out that the
findings in the report reflect the current
state, noting that “only time will
tell” if power sector decarbonisation
will go hand-in-hand with EV cost
reduction and adoption.
Transport is largely viewed as the
second major sector after power that
needs to decarbonise. At the recent
Global Power and Energy Exhibition
(GPEX) 2018 in Barcelona, Spain,
Oliver Weinmann Managing Director,
Vattenfall Europe Innovation
noted that “electricity has been quite
a success story” but there was still a
need to decarbonise transport –
where emissions were still rising –
and heat.
Chairing a discussion at the conference
on decarbonising transport, Albert
Cheung, Head of Global Analysis,
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
said there were now 4 million EVs
globally and that figure was rising by
1 million every six months. In Europe,
he said BNEF data showed that
in Europe, EVs currently represent
2.5 per cent of vehicle sales but that
figure would rise to 14 per cent by
2025.
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES is published by Man in Black Media • www.mibmedia.com • Editor-in-Chief: Junior Isles • For all enquiries email: enquiries@teitimes.com
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